I just attended the Mayor’s Annual Economic Forecast in San Francisco on March 2. Both Mayors from Oakland (Jean Quan) and San Francisco (Ed Lee) presented. As a prelude to the Mayor’s speeches, Paul Single, a SVP at City National Asset Management gave his presentation on the economic recovery. I wanted to write this blog post to give my clients some quick statistical data and possibly enough information where they continue to work hard in their current job or while they are looking for that new-new job.
Paul Single mentioned the term Jobless Recovery which I thought to be an accurate statement. Did you know the official end of the recession was June 2009, according to the National Bureau of Economic research (NBER). The NBER is the official arbiter of when downturns begin and end. So lets put this into perspective for my readers and potential clients. The WSJ just released that unemployment just recently fell below 9%, the lowest since April 2009. Many of my clients would be jumping for joy to see such a drop. The other statistic that we need to analyze is the labor participation rate. That number has decreased almost 2% from 2008 to 64.2% which means 4.4 million people have basically stopped looking for work. If we “combine” the unemployment rate with the labor participation rate, the unemployment rate would be about 11.5%.
Why do they call it a jobless recovery? The economy is recovering when you look at more home sales and less foreclosures, flat inflation, and wage stabilization. However, the jobs are not being created fast enough for us to get out of the woods for the next few years. We would need 300,000 jobs per month for a whole year to make a dent in the 4.4 million.
What can you do if this is the situation? Of course you need to continue to work hard at your career. You need to be ready to make a move if you are not satisfied with your current situation. Get your resume ready and have a plan for what you want to do 3-5 years from now. You have to have a plan if you are going to be ready when REAL growth hist the economy.